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Only two days before the New York race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a significant electoral prediction – not just the winner overall, but block by block. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in New York City, devoted more than ten years in left-leaning activism and has become a kind of well-known figure this year for his deep dives into city data and polling.

He published his highly detailed prediction map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to another area to a third locale, where he forecasted (correctly) that Mamdani would triumph by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in readership and the majority of electors leaned toward the independent, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

How was your election night?

It was necessary since they were adding around 200,000 ballots into the system every few minutes! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: The candidate led the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but there were large groups of votes that came in after that and his lead went from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world where yesterday turned out kind of poorly for him, in which Cuomo would have basically doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. But Mamdani gained 500,000 supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and massively expanded his support from the first round.

Expanding Support

Where did the mayor-elect gain additional support from?

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Plus he further maximized his core of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, renters and residents struggling with costs

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a real thing, limited to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for Trump last year went for Zohran now. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Effects

A major development of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Turnout was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought we might go over 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. There was a decent anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to win.

You predicted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to get over 50%. He has just over 50% but there’s still around 200K ballots uncounted at that time. So it’s not certain, but I believe probable, and I wish he achieves it because afterwards none can claim Sliwa was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He lost any district in any borough. Not even one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an highly conservative area. That really was unexpected. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many conservatives on Staten Island with a high participation. I think occurred a lot of strategic balloting by the Republicans. This happened prior to the former president tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide unless the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your often-discussed left-wing base – did backing for the candidate dominant in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was some weakening of the progressive zone in some areas like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, instance, the property owners and homeowners all went for the independent. Thus there existed a little resistance. But no, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the vote we reported on if the candidate was making inroads with the community. Is there any suggestion that he did?

There are neighborhoods with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. However in the affluent districts like the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance definitely mattered in those places. Similarly in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned the independent. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, they were strongly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if there were major surprises on this one, but he did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the another locale by big margins.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will progressive base become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest political leaders from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I believe that there will be more of that – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

But I believe that each urban center in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Cities are the epicenters of progressive influence in the nation – because youth reside there, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.